The regression view: every World Cup 2026 side ranked by expected goals for and against, a Poisson-derived expected points per game, and the gap between the points they’ve actually banked and what their xG says they “should” have. Over-performers are riding finishing or variance; under-performers are due. Click any column to sort.
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xGF/g and xGA/g = expected goals for / against per game from recent tournaments. xPTS/g = expected points per game, a Poisson on those two rates (3·P(win)+P(draw)). Pts = actual points from finished World Cup matches. +/- vs xPTS = actual points-per-game minus xPTS/g: green = over-performing its xG, red = under-performing. See how the model works →