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♚ 2026 World Cup · complete · Spain champions

WORLD CUP MODEL

What our model said before a ball was kicked: the full 48-team bracket simulated 10,000 times. The tournament finished on 2026-07-19 and Spain won it. Final tables are on Groups, every knockout tie on the bracket, and the live club season on Matches.

Pre-tournament title odds all futures → bracket →

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What our model said before a ball was kicked: the full 48-team bracket simulated 10,000 times. The tournament finished on 2026-07-19 and Spain won it. Final tables are on Groups, every knockout tie on the bracket, and the live club season on Matches.

Pre-tournament Golden Boot projection all scorers → leaderboard →

PlayerRecent majorsProj
1
Harry Kane England
17G in 25 caps
5.40
2
Lionel Messi Argentina
11G in 16 caps
5.30
3
Kylian Mbappé France
14G in 23 caps
5.23
4
Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal
12G in 18 caps
3.32
5
Julián Alvarez Argentina
7G in 12 caps
3.04
6
Romelu Lukaku Belgium
8G in 17 caps
2.84
7
Kai Havertz Germany
6G in 11 caps
2.73
8
Luis Díaz Colombia
4G in 12 caps
2.64
9
Luis Suárez Colombia
4G in 12 caps
2.64
10
Mikel Oyarzabal Spain
3G in 13 caps
2.62

Pre-tournament group projections full tables & fixtures →

Group A
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Mexico
87%
43%
Group B
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Canada
87%
25%
Qatar
20%
1%
Group C
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Brazil
100%
76%
Morocco
95%
20%
Haiti
4%
0%
Group D
TeamAdvanceWin grp
USA
74%
30%
Turkey
73%
30%
Australia
66%
22%
Paraguay
61%
18%
Group E
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Germany
100%
68%
Ecuador
94%
20%
Group F
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Japan
79%
22%
Sweden
67%
13%
Tunisia
28%
3%
Group G
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Belgium
99%
75%
Egypt
76%
13%
Iran
75%
12%
Group H
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Spain
100%
81%
Uruguay
92%
18%
Group I
TeamAdvanceWin grp
France
98%
64%
Norway
89%
21%
Senegal
83%
15%
Iraq
6%
0%
Group J
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Argentina
100%
79%
Austria
84%
12%
Algeria
80%
9%
Jordan
7%
0%
Group K
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Portugal
98%
58%
Colombia
94%
36%
Group L
TeamAdvanceWin grp
England
99%
73%
Croatia
93%
25%
Ghana
42%
2%
Panama
17%
0%
Archived: every number on this page is the pre-tournament model, ratings as of 2026-08-26. 104 of 104 fixtures have been played. Results live on Groups and the bracket. Methodology.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Please bet responsibly. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works →