♚ 2026 World Cup · opens June 11

WORLD CUP MODEL

Our match model, simulated through the full 48-team bracket 10,000 times.

Title Odds all futures → bracket →

TeamModelFairMarket
1
Spain
18.4%
5.4
6.0
2
Argentina
17.6%
5.7
11.0
3
Brazil
16.9%
5.9
11.0
4
England
9.7%
10.4
8.4
5
France
7.7%
13.0
6.2
6
Portugal
7.0%
14.3
11.0
7
Germany
4.7%
21.5
17.5
8
Netherlands
3.6%
27.8
24.0
9
Colombia
3.0%
32.9
50.0
10
Belgium
2.4%
41.0
46.0
11
Morocco
2.1%
48.8
70.0
12
Uruguay
1.6%
62.5
100.0

Golden Boot Race all scorers → leaderboard →

PlayerRecent majorsProj
1
Harry Kane England
17G in 25 caps
2.64
2
Kai Havertz Germany
6G in 11 caps
2.57
3
Lionel Messi Argentina
11G in 16 caps
2.26
4
Romelu Lukaku Belgium
8G in 17 caps
2.20
5
Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal
12G in 18 caps
2.19
6
Neymar Brazil
4G in 8 caps
2.17
7
Kylian Mbappé France
14G in 23 caps
2.08
8
Memphis Depay Netherlands
4G in 15 caps
1.17
9
Lautaro Martínez Argentina
6G in 12 caps
1.15
10
Ferran Torres Spain
5G in 15 caps
1.07

Groups full tables & fixtures →

Group A
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Mexico
85%
39%
Czech Republic
80%
32%
South Korea
72%
23%
South Africa
37%
7%
Group B
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Switzerland
98%
66%
Canada
87%
25%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
59%
7%
Qatar
23%
1%
Group C
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Brazil
100%
76%
Morocco
95%
20%
Scotland
68%
4%
Haiti
5%
0%
Group D
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Turkey
74%
31%
USA
73%
28%
Australia
67%
23%
Paraguay
61%
18%
Group E
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Germany
100%
68%
Ecuador
95%
23%
Ivory Coast
84%
10%
Curaçao
2%
0%
Group F
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Netherlands
94%
60%
Japan
74%
21%
Sweden
62%
13%
Tunisia
39%
5%
Group G
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Belgium
98%
72%
Iran
73%
14%
Egypt
70%
13%
New Zealand
24%
2%
Group H
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Spain
100%
80%
Uruguay
93%
18%
Cape Verde
33%
1%
Saudi Arabia
19%
0%
Group I
TeamAdvanceWin grp
France
98%
63%
Norway
86%
20%
Senegal
82%
16%
Iraq
9%
0%
Group J
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Argentina
100%
79%
Austria
86%
12%
Algeria
78%
8%
Jordan
8%
0%
Group K
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Portugal
97%
59%
Colombia
93%
36%
DR Congo
46%
4%
Uzbekistan
22%
1%
Group L
TeamAdvanceWin grp
England
99%
73%
Croatia
95%
25%
Ghana
39%
1%
Panama
19%
0%
Group-stage advance & win-group probabilities are exact; title/knockout odds are modeled estimates. Ratings as of 2026-06-02. Methodology.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Please bet responsibly. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works →