Probabilities are our model at neutral venues.
"Fair" = our model's fair price; "mkt" = the market's implied probability (bookmaker margin removed) and the best available price.
We show both numbers and stop there: of 94 of these calls graded against the closing line, 26 beat it, 16 tied and 52 lost — 33.3%
excluding ties. "Best" is the highest price across every bookmaker in the feed — around 40 of them, many offshore or
European — so the book named next to a price may not be one you can bet with. Read the full
methodology.