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♚ 2026 World Cup · complete · Spain champions

WORLD CUP MODEL

What our model said before a ball was kicked: the full 48-team bracket simulated 10,000 times. The tournament finished on 2026-07-19 and Spain won it. Final tables are on Groups, every knockout tie on the bracket, and the live club season on Matches.

Pre-tournament title odds all futures → bracket →

TeamModelFairMarket
What our model said before a ball was kicked: the full 48-team bracket simulated 10,000 times. The tournament finished on 2026-07-19 and Spain won it. Final tables are on Groups, every knockout tie on the bracket, and the live club season on Matches.

Pre-tournament Golden Boot projection all scorers → leaderboard →

PlayerRecent majorsProj
1
Harry Kane England
17G in 25 caps
5.40
2
Lionel Messi Argentina
11G in 16 caps
5.29
3
Kylian Mbappé France
14G in 23 caps
5.22
4
Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal
12G in 18 caps
3.30
5
Julián Alvarez Argentina
7G in 12 caps
3.03
6
Kai Havertz Germany
6G in 11 caps
2.73
7
Mikel Oyarzabal Spain
3G in 13 caps
2.73
8
Romelu Lukaku Belgium
8G in 17 caps
2.67
10
Luis Díaz Colombia
4G in 12 caps
2.51

Pre-tournament group projections full tables & fixtures →

Group A
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Mexico
85%
42%
Group B
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Canada
88%
24%
Qatar
18%
1%
Group C
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Brazil
100%
76%
Morocco
94%
20%
Haiti
6%
0%
Group D
TeamAdvanceWin grp
USA
77%
33%
Turkey
69%
26%
Australia
65%
21%
Paraguay
64%
20%
Group E
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Germany
100%
72%
Ecuador
92%
17%
Group F
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Japan
79%
22%
Sweden
70%
14%
Tunisia
25%
2%
Group G
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Belgium
98%
74%
Egypt
79%
15%
Iran
72%
10%
Group H
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Spain
100%
80%
Uruguay
93%
19%
Group I
TeamAdvanceWin grp
France
99%
67%
Norway
90%
19%
Senegal
84%
14%
Iraq
5%
0%
Group J
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Argentina
100%
80%
Austria
86%
12%
Algeria
80%
8%
Jordan
6%
0%
Group K
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Portugal
98%
58%
Colombia
95%
37%
Group L
TeamAdvanceWin grp
England
100%
79%
Croatia
92%
19%
Ghana
38%
1%
Panama
20%
0%
Archived: every number on this page is the pre-tournament model, ratings as of 2026-10-06. 104 of 104 fixtures have been played. Results live on Groups and the bracket. Methodology.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Please bet responsibly. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works →